KMT's Balancing U.S. and China Must Persuade Swing Voters
United Daily News Commentary, April 2, 2026
Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun of the Kuomintang (KMT) is leading a delegation to visit the mainland and is expected to meet with General Secretary Xi Jinping of the Chinese Communist Party. Taking place six months before the year-end local elections, will this be a boost or a liability? There are differing interpretations within the KMT. However, engagement is always better than no interaction. If the exchange adheres to the principles of equality, dignity, goodwill, and reciprocity, as advocated by Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, and if its narrative is further strengthened—especially with a planned visit to the United States following the mainland trip—the KMT’s equal emphasis on the United States and China approach should not negatively impact the year-end election prospects.
Regarding the upcoming “Cheng–Xi meeting,” the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has not only responded with sarcasm but also defaulted to “red-baiting.” Premier Cho Jung-tai also seized the opportunity while responding to Chiang and Taoyuan Mayor Chang San-cheng’s urging to allocate funds for new initiatives, using Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen’s remarks advocating a reasonable defense procurement budget between NT$800 billion (about US$25 billion) and NT$1 trillion (about US$31.3 billion) to question the KMT: “Should we wait for Lu, or for new instructions from Cheng after she returns from China?”
There is broad public consensus in Taiwan that cross-strait exchanges and interaction are necessary. Deputy whip Legislator Chuang Jui-hsiung of the DPP caucus of the Legislative Yuan also stated that he does not oppose normal cross-strait exchanges, but the premise must be equality and dignity, not bowing and cooperating with united front performances. Indeed, whether Chairwoman Cheng’s delegation can interact with mainland leadership under conditions of equality and dignity, whether the process is transparent, and whether positions can be clearly articulated will all be closely scrutinized by the public.
In particular, with just over seven months remaining before the year-end nine-in-one elections, and with several counties and cities widely expected in political circles to potentially “shift from KMT to DPP,” Chairwoman Cheng’s performance during her mainland visit has become a key factor in determining whether it will boost electoral prospects. KMT figures believe that failure to uphold equality and dignity would inevitably impact their electoral standing at year’s end.
In Taiwan’s political landscape, KMT and DPP ideologues are in extreme opposition. Regardless of how Chairwoman Cheng performs during her mainland visit, the DPP base will certainly criticize it heavily. The real determinant of gains or losses lies with centrist voters or those who are leaning KMT or DPP; they are more sensitive to the “benefits and risks of cross-strait exchanges” than those with fixed political positions. Therefore, how the KMT can comprehensively articulate the necessity and legitimacy of this mainland visit amid widespread red-baiting from the DPP, and dispel concerns of “over-leaning toward China,” is particularly crucial.
On March 31, the KMT announced that Chairwoman Cheng is expected to visit the United States in June, clearly intending to emphasize its equal emphasis on relations with the United States and China. Party insiders also specifically explained that Cheng’s earlier visit to mainland China was based on an assessment of heightened cross-strait tensions, prioritizing the easing of confrontation. In responding to reporters’ questions, they also suggested that the NT$380 billion (about US$11.9 billion) plus N figure proposed by the KMT may not be far from the NT$800 billion supported by Mayor Lu, and that by June, defense procurement may no longer be the top concern for the United States. These moves are all meant to demonstrate that the KMT is not leaning toward China, but rather pursuing a balanced approach between the United States and China.”
In recent years, the Taiwan Strait has frequently been labeled by the international community as fraught with military tension and danger. Amid continued strain in cross-strait relations, the largest opposition party in Taiwan visiting the mainland to engage in dialogue and express Taiwanese desire for peace cannot be said to be unimportant. However, the key lies in what Chairwoman Cheng says and does during her visit, and how the public interprets it. If the KMT fails to control the narrative, or if the public does not accept its explanations and positions, then what could have been a beneficial visit may instead become a burden in the year-end elections.